Session Conditions

Pre-open read for 2026-10-16. Base rates, not forecasts. Data: QQQ, RTH 9:30 ET opens (yfinance)
NEUTRAL
Nothing in the pre-open regime data stands out. Treat base rates as unconditional.
2991 sessions like this out of 6924 since 1999-04-08
Gap: not yet known — updates after the open.

Recent sessions + projected range

Real daily candles, then the next session's range — teal band, no implied direction. Not a projected candle.

766.6731.4696.22026-09-03 → 2026-10-152026-10-16

Range envelope

NEUTRAL · n=2,991

Excursion from the open on the 2,991 past sessions that looked like this one. Range only — never direction. Differences under 5% are called "no different," even when the CI clears — a materiality floor on top of the significance test, because at n=2,991 a small gap can pass a CI check without meaning anything to a trader.

OPEN +361 +145 +72 -69 -147 -422 HIGH REACHED LOW REACHED

Solid line = median · shaded = middle 50% · outer = 10th-90th · points at NDX level

Size of dayNo different from a normal session.
Direction No edge. Days like this closed above the open 52% of the time [50-54%] — a coin flip, and the page won't pretend otherwise.
Big-range oddsOnly 14% ran ≥1.3× ATR, against 15% normally.

Does today clear your bar?

Set the range your setup needs to work.
190 pts
Days like today
All days

What days like this didDays like this [95% CI]All days
Session range (× ATR)366 pts (0.93× ATR, -1% vs typical) [0.91–0.94]370 pts (0.93× ATR)▼ n.s.
Middle 50% of days like this: 261–438 pts (~$522–$876 per MNQ)
Directional efficiency0.47 [0.46–0.48]0.47▼ n.s.
Middle 50% of days like this: 0.24 – 0.69
P(trend day)35% [33%–36%]36%▼ n.s.
P(range ≥ 1.3 ATR)14% [13%–15%]15%▼
P(range ≤ 0.7 ATR)29% [28%–31%]32%▼
P(gap filled)68% [67%–70%]67%▲ n.s.
Rows dimmed as "n.s." are not statistically different from all days — don't trade them as if they were.
WhyValue1y percentile
5d/20d range ratio1.04863% pct
Yesterday's range (ATR)1.45893% pct
20-day move (ATR)1.1558% pct
Efficiency ratio (10d)0.24851% pct
Position in 20d range0.2717% pct
VIX (prior close)16.4638% pct
VIX / VIX3M0.8965% pct
VIX 1y percentile0.39141% pct
Realized vol 5d/20d0.90246% pct
Scheduled events, next 10 days
Every number is a historical frequency conditioned on information available before the open, computed from: QQQ, RTH 9:30 ET opens (yfinance). Nothing here predicts direction. Not financial advice. Point/dollar figures (MNQ, $2/pt) are today's translation of the historical ATR-percent finding at the current index level (NDX 29,936) — they shift as the index does; the ATR multiple is the stable finding.